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Tuesday, November 22, 2005

Kyiv Remembers

On Tuesday, Kyiv celebrated the Day of Freedom. Last year, street protests began in Kyiv following contested election results. These street protests emerged into a two-month long showdown between the government and its candidate and the reform-minded, Western-leaning challengers. 100,000 gathered at Maidan (Kyiv's main square) to see President Yushchenko, former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, and other leaders of the Orange Revolution that successfully challenged the oppressive and regressive government of Leonid Kuchma.

I remember those days very well. We wondered if there would be war. Regions in eastern Ukraine were calling for the country to splinter. We wondered what would happen if the tanks were called in, for there were often rumors that they were on the way or that Russian special forces were camped outside Kyiv. There was fear of a police crackdown. How would the half-million people who came to Maidan every night for more than a month and the many thousands who slept there react if the High Court did not overturn the election results? It was exhilirating--and very troubling. Packed into those crowds I had never felt so proud of this nation. I had never before thought that Ukraine would rise from her knees. But she did.

Worries of the revolution passed. There is a new president. Journalists get beheaded less often. Newspapers aren't shut down. TV stations aren't threatened (as much as we know). Government resources aren't abused (it seems) as much as they used to be.

But the team that led the Orange Revolution has splintered. It was a coalition that mostly only had in common a common enemy. Once the old government was defeated, the in-fighting began. Two oligarchs helped form the government and oligarchs aren't used to sharing power. Poroshenko the Chocolate King (owner of the $200 million Roshen confectionary company) and Tymoshenko the Gas Queen (the radical firebrand who is reported to have made at least a billion in an energy company she used to head) began to squabble for power. Tymoshenko is not the capitalist Yushchenko is. She is basically a socialist at heart and doesn't mind the government interfering in the energy market or even trying to lower the price of meat. Yushchenko is an economist, former head of the National Bank and favored by the West. His message has been that Ukraine simply needs to join the EU. Ukraine is still trying to figure out how to pay wages and keep the heat on. He is too distant from the nation's real problems. He lives in an EU-colored world. (His wife not too long ago gave up her US citizenship.)

Eventually, Yushchenko dismissed the government and appointed a new prime minister. This left both oligarchs on the outside. Poroshenko is loyal to Yushchenko who heads the Our Ukraine party. Tymoshenko has her own political party. In January, changes to the Constitution come into effect, and parliament will appoint the prime minister. Unless the two parties genuinely unite, it's possible that the opposition could become prime minister with a president of the opposite party.

During the rally tonight at Maidan, Yulia had tears in her eyes. Thousands were chanting "Yulia." People love her. She gets to the point and she seems to act. I doubt she acts out of interests for the nation always but there are no clean Ukrainian politicians. Are there clean politicians anywhere? She now is calling for her party to unite with Yushchenko's party but there is hesitancy on the part of the president. In recent polls, her party is pulling down 17% of the vote while his is getting only 12%. I can't see any other way out except a coalition.

Most have become disillusioned after the break of the Orange team. Many thought Yushchenko would introduce a golden age where everything would be perfect. Such never happens. Only Jesus Christ can do that. He has done some good things. So did Yulia as prime minister.

Things change slowly in Ukraine. Most of eastern Ukraine is completely against the revolution for a variety of factors. There is still a large bloc of Communists in Parliament!!! People still march in the streets with pictures of Stalin. In such a world, it's naive to think that change will come quickly.

The drama is certainly not over. The March elections will tell us much. But I don't think we are going back to where we were a year ago with massive vote fraud and a near-stolen election. For that, we have the millions who stood in the snow and cold to thank.

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