Two Years Later

Here's an article I wrote for the UEC's newsletter. It was rejected, though, so I thought I would publish it here for anyone interested on an update on Ukraine's Orange Revolution. This event has had a great impact on Ukrainian society.

In November 2004, audiences worldwide were captivated by the half million protestors who claimed Kyiv's snowy streets to protest a corrupt presidential election between the western-leaning Viktor Yushchenko and the other Viktor, Viktor Yanukovych,hand-picked successor to the sitting president and also of Moscow patronage. Throngs of disgruntled voters literally shut down the federal government in a 44-day peaceful siege ended by a Constitutional Court decision calling for a new election. The Orange Revolution, as it came to be called, was a story book drama whose final chapter has yet to be written.

The characters were bigger than life: a dioxin-poisoned, disfigured presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko, married to a US citizen; the dynamic, populist firebrand Yulia Tymoshenko (pictured on the right), imprisoned by the former regime and seeking revenge as the head of her eponymous political party, and the head of the Socialists Moroz, a tired political maneuverer no one fully trusted. When this triumvirate came to the streets, the crowds went wild. They represented hope, the hope of finally being free after ten years of so-called independence.

The peaceful protests did bring enough pressure to draw the government which openly supported Yanukovych's campaign to the negotiating table. In view of thousands of fraud cases, the Constitutional Court easily found room to call for new elections. But along with new elections came "political reform," a compromise in the balance of power. According to the reform, a year after the new elections much of the president's power would be transferred to the parliament, the Verkhovna Rada.

Yushchenko had a year and some reforms were implemented. Tymoshenko was appointed prime minister and Forbes magazine named her the third most powerful woman in the world. Unfortunately, the dream team fell apart with internecine squabbling between the chocolate king, Poroshenko, who owns a leading Ukrainian confectionary, and the strong-willed gas princess, Yulia Tymoshenko, named so for her somewhat questionable dealings in the natural gas trade. Tymoshenko was dismissed as prime minister after 8 months.

Then came the parliamentary elections of March 2006. Whoever would win control of parliament would appoint the prime minister and gain many powers formerly held by the president. A furious campaign ensued and, as expected, no single party won a majority. The president's party was shocked by a terrible performance and the whole nation was surprised by the grand performance of Tymoshenko's party which received the second highest number of votes, just behind the eastern Ukraine-based Regions party, headed by Viktor Yanukovych. Their support base is unchallenged in eastern Ukraine and functions not unlike the political machines that dominated much of early 20th-century America. It came as no surprise that Regions received the largest number of votes.

What did come as a surprise was the inability of the Orange coalition to form a government. All 3 parties were needed to unite again to form a parliamentary majority and install an Orange prime minister. The Communists, still kicking but barely alive, and the Party of the Regions could not form a majority on their own. In soap-opera like drama, while the nation expected an Orange government to be announced with the coalition documents having just been signed, on July 6, the Socialist leader Moroz stunned the country during a late night session of parliament by announcing he had made a secret deal with the Communists and the Regions, was then elected speaker of the Rada, and Yanukovych was on his way to becoming prime minister after the humiliation of the re-elections brought on by the Orange Revolution.

Since Moroz's public treachery, incessant squabbling has controlled Ukraine's political landscape. The Socialists are in disarray, many having left the party; no one wants to follow a Judas. Tymoshenko--in Energizer-bunny fashion--addles Yanukovych's government. The revolution has certainly not ended nor was it unsuccessful. It brought down a regime no one thought could be touched. It made for a peaceful transfer of power to its supporters and now to its foes. The country continues to move in a democratic direction though this most recent debacle remains a step backward.

We hope presidential elections in 2009 will not mean another revolution.